Ether May Struggle to Deliver Meaningful Rallies in 2025 According to 10X Research
Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, has expressed doubts about Ethereum’s potential for a significant price increase in 2025. According to Thielen, Ether might not be the wisest investment choice for a bull run next year, as the asset may deliver underwhelming returns compared to Bitcoin.
Ethereum’s Volatility: A Double-Edged Sword
While Ethereum’s volatility is undeniable, Thielen believes it remains a poor medium-term investment. He expects ETH to underperform BTC once again in 2025. "As a result, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: ‘avoid,’" Thielen said.
Active Validators and Unstaking: Key Metrics to Watch
Thielen highlighted the trend in active validators as one of the most important metrics to watch in 2025. He noted that the growth rate of validators has turned negative, dropping by about 1% over the past 30 days. This raises concerns about the increasing risk of more validators exiting the network.
Rise in Unstaking: A Logical Conclusion
Thielen argued that a rise in unstaking seems logical, given Ethereum’s lack of "real demand" outside of staking. However, others may not agree with this statement.
Attestant’s chief business officer, Tim Lowe, recently told Cointelegraph that demand for Ether can easily increase with refined marketing and a unified value proposition. This would naturally lead to more investors accuring over time.
Diversification from Bitcoin: A Simple Catalyst
Lowe sees diversification from Bitcoin as a simple catalyst for Ethereum. However, Thielen is skeptical of this idea, pointing out that Ether has underperformed against Bitcoin in the past.
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: A Tale of Two Assets
While Bitcoin has seen significant price increases since January 1, 2024, Ether has clocked a relatively modest return of 46.3% over the same period, according to CoinMarketCap data. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024 was met with strong demand, helping push Bitcoin’s price to new highs within two months.
Ethereum’s Lackluster Performance: A Result of Poor Timing?
Thielen suggested that the Duncan upgrade in March, which reduced the network’s gas fees and allowed it to handle more transactions, "arrived six months too late." It missed the peak of the memecoin rally, and the market shifted to the "more cost-effective" Solana alternative.
Pectra Upgrade: A Dubious Catalyst
Thielen is also skeptical of the Pectra upgrade, which is due to be introduced in early 2025. He noted that only two out of 19 upgrades have had a notable positive impact on price, and even those occurred during Bitcoin bull markets.
Ether’s Price Uncertainty: Analysts Weigh In
While Thielen expects Ether to continue underperforming against Bitcoin in 2025, other crypto analysts say Ether’s price remains uncertain and could move in either direction. Pseudonymous crypto trader Cold Blooded Schiller said that Ether has been "rangebound" since December 25 and one of two scenarios is likely to play out:
- Optimistic Scenario: Ether might stage a "sweep and run" to the upside, triggering a price breakout.
- Pessimistic Scenario: Ether could break down to the December 20 range low, potentially retesting the $3,000 level.
Breaking Out or Breaking Down: Two Possible Scenarios
Echoing a similar scenario, pseudonymous crypto trader Dal said that Ether could go in one of two directions:
- Compressing Hard: If they flip 3,554 and go back to 4k.
- Sweeping 3102: If they can’t flip.
Bullish on Ether: Michael van de Poppe’s Take
MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe is bullish on Ethereum, predicting that the ETH/BTC ratio could break through 0.04 in January. At the time of publication, the ETH/BTC ratio was 0.03571, according to TradingView data.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s performance in 2025 remains uncertain, with analysts offering differing opinions on the asset’s potential. While some, like Thielen, expect Ether to continue underperforming against Bitcoin, others are more bullish on the asset’s prospects. As always, investors should conduct their own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This article is for general information purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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